Executive Summary
This report presents an analysis of data from the Fourth Wave of the UNDP Regular Perceptions Survey on Social Tensions throughout Lebanon. Funded by the Government of the Netherlands, it differs from the reports published on the first three waves in that it describes both the geographic or temporal variations in tension levels (Section 1), and also uses econometric modelling to answer the key question: “To what extent are changes in Lebanese perceptions of Syrian refugees attributable to the provision of assistance, particularly cash assistance?”.
The data on which the analysis is based upon is representative to the district-level of the total adult Syrian and Lebanese populations in Lebanon and was collected in June and July 2018. Given the reality that relations are reported more negatively by Lebanese than Syrian respondents , this analysis concentrated solely on Lebanese perceptions. To measure changes in these perceptions, three key outcomes were selected for further analysis:
i. Refugee population pressure on services: e.g. ‘“The presence of so many Syrian refugees in Lebanon today is placing too much strain on Lebanon’s resources” To what extent do you agree / disagree?’;
ii. Quality of relations: e.g. ‘“Lebanese and Syrians in this community are able to work together to solve problems they have together” To what extent do you agree / disagree?’;
iii. Propensity for negative collective action: e.g. ‘“When tensions are high, some restrictions on foreigner' movement or curfews can help keep this area safe” To what extent do you agree / disagree?’
